Tech entrepreneur, Elon Musk, has claimed that mortality rates in parts of Africa declined after the United States sharply reduced foreign aid funding, arguing that the cuts ended programmes he believes contributed to political instability.
Musk made the assertion on Tuesday while responding to criticism of spending reductions championed by the Department of Government Efficiency, an initiative he has publicly backed. The cuts significantly affected funding for the United States Agency for International Development.
According to Refugees International, US humanitarian assistance dropped from $14bn in 2024 to $3.7bn in 2025.
The organisation described the shutdown of USAID as the “most prominent manifestation” of a wider retreat in global humanitarian support.
The Center for Global Development also reported that USAID spending in 2025 was about 58 per cent lower than the previous year.
Despite those reductions, humanitarian groups and public health experts have warned that scaling back aid could lead to significant loss of life.
Research published in The Lancet in July 2025 estimated that the funding cuts could be linked to more than 14 million deaths worldwide by 2030, including over 4.5 million children.
In a separate assessment, columnist Nicholas Kristof cited projections from the Center for Global Development suggesting that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year without US-backed HIV prevention and treatment programmes.
However, Musk pointed to mortality figures from several African countries that he said showed no evidence of rising deaths following the aid reductions.
In a post on X, he wrote, “Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!”
The claim accompanied an analysis based largely on all-cause mortality data from South Africa. The figures included a graph tracking weekly deaths between January 2023 and May 2026, highlighting the period after reductions to USAID and PEPFAR funding.
According to the analysis, excess deaths remained close to zero and were below levels projected before the aid cuts.
The accompanying commentary also referenced studies that questioned the long-term health impact of foreign assistance.
Among them was a 2019 study that found limited statistical evidence linking aid levels to improvements in life expectancy or reductions in mortality across developing countries.
Musk has consistently defended the funding cuts, arguing they are necessary to curb waste, corruption and the misuse of taxpayer funds.
He has maintained that some USAID-backed activities in Africa encouraged violent political uprisings aimed at installing left-leaning governments and that ending such support helped remove a source of conflict.
