A new survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, but insecurity, distrust in electoral institutions and concerns about dispute resolution could discourage many from turning up at the polls.
The findings were contained in the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0, released in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, covered 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 participated in face-to-face interviews in rural communities.
According to the survey, 47 per cent of respondents were very likely to vote, while 41 per cent said they were likely to vote and were already certain of their preferred candidate.
However, 61 per cent said fear of violence could stop them from voting, while 82 per cent identified insecurity as a major concern ahead of the 2027 elections.
The survey also showed a decline in confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, with trust falling from 45 per cent in the first two editions of the survey to 34 per cent in the latest report.
Meanwhile, 49 per cent expressed confidence in the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the IReV platform for accreditation and transmission of results.
On the judiciary, 63 per cent said they had little or no confidence that electoral disputes would be resolved fairly. The figure rose to 81 per cent among respondents in the South-South.
Yiaga Africa’s Chairman, Board of Trustees, Hussaini Abdu, described the findings as a wake-up call for stakeholders to address weaknesses in the electoral process before the elections.
«“It’s a wake-up call to Nigerians and to civil society organisations, and everyone that is involved in elections, that this election is very important to the country.”»
Abdu also urged political parties to mobilise their supporters and encourage citizens to participate, warning against a repeat of the low turnout recorded during the 2023 general elections.
He noted that only 27 per cent of registered voters participated in the last general election despite the large number of registered voters.
Yiaga’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the survey showed that Nigerians still wanted to participate in elections, but several factors could prevent them from translating that intention into actual voting.
«“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money.”»
Bichi described Nigeria’s low voter turnout as a “conversion problem” rather than voter apathy, and said institutions responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics must address the concerns.
The Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, described the 84 per cent voter intention figure as encouraging.
However, he advised INEC to avoid making promises it might struggle to fulfil ahead of the elections.
«“I think INEC must not overpromise. It should under-promise and then overperform.”»
Nwagwu said the electoral process was complex and warned that while INEC was working to deliver credible elections, some actors could attempt to undermine the process.
Yiaga Africa recommended that the Federal Government and security agencies publish a national election security plan by November 2026, with particular attention to the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions.
The organisation also called for stronger protection of voters, rather than focusing only on election materials.
It urged INEC to publicly commit to the real-time upload of polling unit results to IReV and to publish and test its results management protocol, particularly in the South-East and South-South.
The group further called on the judiciary to conclude pre-election disputes over candidates before ballot papers are printed and to establish clear timelines for the resolution of election petitions.
The 2027 presidential election is scheduled for January 16, 2027.
