Iran on Tuesday vowed to halt oil exports from the Gulf as long as the United States and Israel continue their bombardment, amid escalating tensions in the region that have already disrupted energy supplies and pushed global oil prices higher.
The warning came after the United Arab Emirates shut down its largest oil refinery in Ruwais following a drone attack that sparked a fire at the industrial complex housing the facility, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Oil markets have been volatile since Iranian attacks on shipping forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy route, following US-Israeli strikes that reportedly killed Tehran’s supreme leader.
Prices briefly eased on Monday after US President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could soon end, but they began climbing again on Tuesday as fresh threats and attacks emerged across the Gulf.
Over the past week, oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and other parts of the region has been targeted, heightening fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.
The Ruwais refinery, considered the largest single-site oil refinery in the region, was shut as a precaution after the drone strike caused a fire at the surrounding industrial complex.
Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, warned that the strategic waterway could remain unstable if the conflict continues.
“The Strait of Hormuz will either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all or will be a strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers,” Larijani declared.
Markets were further rattled by strikes on Iranian oil depots and ongoing attacks on energy facilities around the Gulf. Explosions were also reported in Doha on Tuesday.
Qatar said Iranian strikes on its civilian infrastructure were still ongoing, while the suspension of the country’s liquefied natural gas exports has driven European energy prices sharply higher.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced a fresh wave of strikes targeting Tehran, as the United States intensified its own missile and air campaign.
“Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters during a news conference at the Pentagon.
The continuing hostilities have sparked concerns among traders and policymakers about potential global economic fallout, given that the Gulf region accounts for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.
Saudi oil giant Aramco warned that prolonged disruptions could severely affect global markets.
“There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets the longer the disruption goes on, and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” the company’s president and CEO Amin H. Nasser said.
“It’s absolutely critical that shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The crisis has already prompted several countries to take precautionary measures. Egypt raised fuel prices by as much as 30 percent, Pakistan announced plans to provide naval escorts for commercial vessels, and France deployed warships to the Gulf region.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps dismissed Trump’s attempt to downplay the economic impact of the conflict, warning that the region’s oil exports could be completely halted.
“The Iranian armed forces… will not allow the export of a single litre of oil from the region to the hostile side and its partners until further notice.”
“It is we who will determine the end of the war,” the IRGC said in a statement reported by Iranian media.
Larijani also issued a warning directed at Trump, urging the US leader to tread carefully.
“Iran is not afraid of your empty threats. Even those greater than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation,” he wrote in a social media post.
The remarks came after Trump said the war could soon end but also threatened devastating retaliation if Iran interferes with oil exports.
“It’s going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they’ll be hit even harder,” Trump told reporters on Monday.
“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”
In a later message on social media, the US president warned Tehran against escalating the conflict further.
“Death, fire, and fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!”
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu also signalled that military operations would continue, expressing hope that the Iranian people would rise against their government.
“Ultimately, it depends on them. But there is no doubt that, with the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones, and we are not done yet,” he said.
Oil markets have responded sharply to the escalating crisis. On Monday, prices briefly surged past the symbolic $100-per-barrel mark, jumping nearly 30 percent before easing slightly after Trump’s comments.
However, analysts say the outlook remains highly uncertain.
“Rare are days in the markets when you get this much volatility,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“Part of yesterday’s optimism came after Trump said the war would end ‘soon’ and that the US was ahead of schedule,” she noted.
“Concretely, however, the conflict in the Middle East continues at full speed, political developments are not pointing to a near-term resolution, and there is little clarity about the US plans.”
