Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, faces a crucial electoral battle as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, with his political future hanging in the balance amid public anger over the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, subsequent wars in Gaza and with Iran, and Israel’s growing international isolation.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, remains a strong political contender despite mounting criticism of his leadership.
The country’s fragmented political system and the growing influence of nationalist politics could still give him an advantage in forming the next government.
Opinion polls indicate a close contest between Netanyahu’s Likud party and its right-wing allies and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff known for his tough security stance.
Eisenkot has attracted support from both centre and right-wing voters dissatisfied with the current administration.
Netanyahu has based his campaign on his wartime leadership and close relationship with US President Donald Trump, who has endorsed him.
The Israeli leader said on Sunday that Trump was prepared to act again to “finally” remove the Iranian threat, but only if Netanyahu remained in power.
Eisenkot, however, has accused the prime minister of “relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats,” insisting that Trump would work “in full cooperation with any leader chosen by the people.”
Netanyahu may need the support of far-right politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to secure a governing majority.
Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries over allegations of inciting violence against Palestinians.
Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party has also recorded increased support in opinion polls.
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to victory. If neither can assemble a governing coalition in Israel’s 120-member parliament, Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister until another election is held next year.
Voting is scheduled to run from 7am to 10pm local time.
October 7 attacks dominate campaign
The election comes after one of Israel’s most turbulent periods since its establishment in 1948, marked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, Israel’s subsequent military offensive in Gaza and deep divisions over the government’s policies.
For many opponents of Netanyahu, the vote represents an opportunity to demand accountability for the security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks, which marked the deadliest day in Israel’s history.
Mali Hajaj, an Education Ministry employee who supports Eisenkot, said “the most important thing is the establishment of a national inquiry because that’s where our healing will come from.”
Another voter, Lisa Tortor, expressed hope that Netanyahu would lose power, saying she wanted a new government that could begin repairing the damage to Israel’s international reputation.
“I hope Netanyahu would go and they can form a new government and do some of the repairing of the damage that Bibi has done for Jews all over the world and for Israel, and Israel’s image,” she said.
However, some voters remain firmly behind the prime minister.
Nof Gabay, an 18-year-old Likud supporter, rejected the argument that Netanyahu was responsible for the October 7 security failures, describing him as “the right man for the state of Israel.”
“Netanyahu managed the war in the best possible way,” Gabay said.
Wars and security concerns
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza followed the October 7 attacks, during which Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and abducted 251 others.
Gaza health authorities say Israeli attacks have killed 74,000 people.
Israel has also inflicted significant damage on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and exchanged attacks with Iran.
The confrontation included a 12-day aerial campaign against Iranian nuclear sites in 2025, followed by a joint US-Israeli war against Iran this year.
Eisenkot has argued that Israel’s next government must prevent Iran from obtaining a military nuclear capability, either through military action or a diplomatic agreement backed by the United States.
Although Eisenkot opposes a two-state solution, like most Jewish-led political parties in Israel, he has criticised violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Such violence has increased since 2023, contributing to tensions between Israel and Western countries.
He has also opposed Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.
Coalition negotiations could decide outcome
Some traditional Likud supporters have become disillusioned with Netanyahu, with opponents campaigning to persuade voters to abandon the party.
The prime minister is also facing a long-running corruption trial involving charges he denies.
Turnout among Israel’s Arab minority, whose members are Israeli citizens of Palestinian heritage, could influence the outcome by affecting the balance of seats available for coalition-building.
Although Eisenkot has ruled out a partnership with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values, analysts believe they could support a minority government led by him to prevent Netanyahu from remaining in office.
Israeli political analyst Amotz Asa-El of the Shalom Hartman Institute said the election was unlikely to produce a decisive victory for either side.
“My expectation is that we will have only a slight majority either way. No landslide,” he said.
