Nigeria recorded a ₦20.74tn shortfall in statutory revenue between January and October 2026, despite a significant rise in international crude oil prices amid the conflict involving the United States and Iran.
According to The PUNCH, figures from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation showed that actual statutory revenue stood at ₦26.14tn during the 10-month period, against a budget target of ₦46.87tn.
The shortfall represents 44.24 per cent of the projected revenue, raising concerns about the country’s ability to translate higher oil prices into increased government earnings.
The figures were contained in a technical sub-committee report prepared for the Federation Account Allocation Committee’s September meeting, which considered the Federation Account’s August 2026 records.
Nigeria’s revenue performance remained below the monthly budget target throughout the period, although receipts improved considerably between May and August.
Monthly statutory revenue rose from ₦1.63tn in January to ₦1.96tn in February before dropping to ₦1.56tn in March.
The figure increased to ₦1.70tn in April and ₦2.38tn in May, before climbing further to ₦2.65tn in June.
Revenue recorded its strongest monthly performance in July, reaching ₦3.95tn, including a ₦250bn augmentation. It subsequently rose to ₦4.36tn in August, the closest the country came to its monthly target of ₦4.687tn.
However, the improvement was short-lived, as revenue fell to ₦2.85tn in September before recovering slightly to ₦3.10tn in October.
Despite October’s recovery, receipts remained ₦1.59tn below the monthly target.
The revenue performance came amid a sharp increase in crude oil prices following disruptions to global energy supplies linked to the Middle East conflict.
Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, Bonny Light, was quoted at $123.97 per barrel on October 22, up from a pre-war average of $70.14 per barrel.
The October 22 price was also significantly higher than the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
Although the elevated prices offered the potential for increased export earnings, the revenue figures showed that the country had yet to meet its budgeted statutory receipts.
Higher crude prices do not automatically translate into increased government revenue, as earnings are also influenced by production volumes, export performance, exchange rates and the efficiency of revenue collection.
A comparison of the figures showed that statutory revenue totalled ₦11.88tn between January and June, while receipts from July to October amounted to ₦14.26tn.
The four-month total was ₦2.38tn higher than the amount recorded in the preceding six months, suggesting an improvement in revenue generation during the latter part of the period.
However, the figures alone do not establish how much of the increase resulted directly from higher international oil prices.
The persistent shortfall could affect budget implementation and public spending, given the dependence of the Federal Government, states and local governments on allocations from the Federation Account.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, recently acknowledged weaknesses in Nigeria’s budget projections, saying revenue estimates had often been overly optimistic.
Speaking at Chatham House in London, Oyedele said the government needed to adopt more realistic assumptions when preparing its budgets.
“We haven’t been doing the budget right. We do projections that are sometimes based on faith and hope. You don’t run a country based on faith,” he said.
His remarks highlighted the need for more credible revenue forecasts to improve fiscal planning and reduce the gap between projected earnings and actual collections.
Overall, the ₦20.74tn deficit indicates that Nigeria’s statutory revenue fell substantially short of its budget expectations during the first 10 months of 2026, despite favourable movements in international crude oil prices.
