Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño weather event raises temperatures, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The projection places Nigeria among the countries expected to suffer the highest number of additional heat-related deaths worldwide during the period.
The report estimates that the country could account for nearly half of the 66,800 additional heat-related deaths projected across the Sahel region.
Published on September 22, 2026, the report, titled 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives
During the Super El Niño, projects that the global death toll from extreme heat could rise by 451,000 above normal levels between June 2026 and February 2027.
The researchers forecast that land temperatures worldwide could reach 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, accompanied by a 44 per cent increase in extremely hot days compared with what would typically be expected.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said the projected deaths represented people going about their daily activities.
“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome—death. The result is that we now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño. This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives.”
Greenstone said.
The report warned that the extreme temperatures expected during the El Niño event could resemble conditions that climate change may make commonplace within the next two decades.
“This is more than a hot summer, it’s a postcard from the future,” the report stated.
It added, “The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a ‘postcard from the future’: while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future.”
The researchers said the projections could help governments and humanitarian organisations identify populations most at risk and channel resources towards interventions capable of preventing deaths.
“With these timelines in mind, there is time to reduce the numbers of lives lost by tens of thousands with targeted action,” it stated.
Nigeria faces significant heat-related mortality
According to the report, Nigeria could experience 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone.
Across the Sahel, the researchers projected 66,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with Nigeria expected to account for 31,400 of the fatalities.
The report stated, “The most impacted countries across the Sahel are forecasted to see an additional 66,800 heat deaths from September-February compared to a normal year, with nearly half of those lives being lost in Nigeria (31,400).
Elsewhere in the region, Sudan will face 17,500 additional heat deaths, Niger will face 10,000, and Chad 8,000.”
The report clarified that the figures represented deaths above the expected levels for a normal year, rather than the total number of people who might die from heat-related causes.
Report urges governments to act
To reduce the projected death toll, the researchers recommended measures including heat alerts, public health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centres, hydration stations, workplace protections and improved healthcare capacity.
They also called for stronger early-warning systems and heat action plans that would allow health officials to reach vulnerable residents, improve access to water and monitor symptoms linked to extreme temperatures.
The report urged governments to implement immediate protective measures while developing long-term strategies to prepare communities for increasingly severe heat conditions.
Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said emergency measures could save lives in the short term but must be supported by sustained planning.
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency,” Carleton said.
She added, “We need to mobilize resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
The researchers based their projections on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts.
They compared the projected deaths with average figures for the corresponding months between 1996 and 2025, noting that the estimates could change as weather forecasts are updated.
The report also warned that heat-related fatalities could continue to increase beyond February 2027.
