The International Monetary Fund says artificial intelligence could increase Nigeria’s economic output and that of other sub-Saharan African countries by up to four per cent over the next decade if governments improve digital infrastructure, develop relevant skills and establish effective regulatory frameworks.
The IMF made this known in a recent blog based on its departmental paper, Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, authored by Martin Schindler, Nikola Spatafora and Andrew Tiffin of the Fund’s African Department.
The Fund said the economic benefits of AI would remain limited if countries fail to improve their level of preparedness.
It estimated that under current conditions, artificial intelligence would contribute only about 0.2 per cent to the region’s GDP over the next 10 years.
However, the IMF said the gains could rise significantly if African countries create the right environment for widespread AI adoption.
“Our research shows AI’s promise, but it also points to significant risks and challenges,” the Fund stated.
The IMF added that with stronger foundations for AI adoption, the technology could generate about four per cent additional economic output across the region over the next decade.
The Fund said the potential economic boost could help address Africa’s growing employment challenge, particularly as the continent is expected to account for a significant share of new entrants into the global workforce by 2030.
It noted that the challenge was not only to create more jobs but also to ensure that the jobs provide better productivity and opportunities.
According to the IMF, AI’s greatest potential in Africa may not necessarily be in replacing workers but in helping businesses and workers become more productive.
The Fund said artificial intelligence could help informal businesses improve inventory management, assist farmers in increasing crop yields and enable medium-sized enterprises to become more formal and competitive in international markets.
The IMF, however, warned that Africa could fall further behind economically if the region fails to keep pace with global AI adoption.
“The risk is that the opposite happens. AI adoption in sub-Saharan Africa currently lags well behind every other region. If richer economies race ahead while African firms and governments lag, the productivity gap between the region and the rest of the world will only widen,” it warned.
Nigeria was identified among the African countries already exploring practical applications of artificial intelligence.
The IMF cited pilot programmes involving Nigerian teachers who use AI-powered chatbots to support mathematics education, saying such initiatives had demonstrated significant potential to improve learning outcomes.
The Fund also referred to digital agricultural advisory trials in Nigeria, Ghana, Rwanda and Uganda, which showed that farmers could benefit from technology-based guidance when combined with access to appropriate farming inputs.
It described agriculture as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for AI adoption in Africa because of the large number of people employed in the sector and its persistent productivity challenges.
The IMF said AI-powered tools could provide farmers with information on planting periods, fertiliser application, pest detection and responses to changing weather conditions.
Beyond agriculture, the Fund said AI could also support improvements in healthcare, education and tax administration.
It noted that AI could assist health workers with patient triage, diagnosis and follow-up, while data analytics powered by AI were being used in countries such as Kenya and South Africa to improve tax compliance and government revenue mobilisation.
To unlock these opportunities, the IMF identified reliable electricity, affordable broadband, digital infrastructure and a workforce with relevant technological skills as key requirements.
It also called for stronger regulation and regional cooperation to build public confidence in AI and ensure its safe adoption.
“AI in Africa is not just a technology policy issue—it is central to the region’s growth strategy,” the IMF stated.
The Fund urged African countries to focus less on competing to develop the world’s most advanced AI models and more on finding affordable, accessible and safe ways to deploy the technology across key sectors of their economies.
