The United Nations has warned that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near historic highs over the next five years, raising concerns that a new temperature record could be set before 2031.
In its latest climate outlook released on Thursday, the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN agency responsible for weather and climate monitoring, said there is a strong likelihood that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will become the hottest ever recorded.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the agency stated, adding that there is an 86 per cent probability that one of those years could surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
The report further projected a 75 per cent chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 would exceed the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels, a benchmark central to international climate efforts.
Climate experts linked part of the projected warming to a possible return of El Niño, a natural climate event associated with increased global temperatures.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
El Niño, which occurs every few years, causes warming in parts of the Pacific Ocean and influences weather systems globally, often contributing to extreme weather conditions.
The warning comes as several parts of Europe experience unusually high temperatures, with countries such as Britain and France reportedly recording temperature extremes for the month of May.
According to the WMO, annual global temperatures during the 2026–2030 period are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above levels recorded between 1850 and 1900, before large-scale industrial emissions significantly accelerated global warming.
The organisation also noted a 91 per cent likelihood that global temperatures would temporarily rise above the 1.5°C threshold in at least one year during the next five years. However, scientists clarified that short-term breaches do not necessarily mean the long-term goals of the Paris climate agreement have failed.
“The 1.5°C and 2°C limits under the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming trends over decades, not temporary yearly increases,” the report explained.
The climate body further raised concerns about the Arctic region, forecasting temperatures there to warm significantly faster than the global average during the next five northern hemisphere winters.
In addition, changing rainfall patterns are expected across different regions of the world, with wetter conditions predicted in areas such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions may affect parts of the Amazon region.
The report, compiled using forecasts from 13 international climate institutes and coordinated by Britain’s Met Office, highlights growing concerns over the pace of global warming and its impact on weather systems worldwide.
