Global food prices increased by five per cent within two months following the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after renewed conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026, the World Bank has disclosed.
According to the bank’s latest analysis, the rise pushed global food prices to their highest point since January 2024, with oils and meals accounting for the sharpest increase, while grains recorded more moderate gains.
The World Bank explained that oils and meals surged by 10 per cent during the period due to higher crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending policies in countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.
Grain prices, however, recorded a three per cent rise, buoyed by what the bank described as sufficient global supplies despite increases in the prices of wheat and maize.
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, attributing the situation to “ample grain and oilseed supplies” and the fact that farmers in the Northern Hemisphere had already secured fertiliser supplies before the crisis began.
The report noted that wheat prices climbed by nine per cent while maize rose by four per cent on a quarterly basis, largely due to drought concerns and rising production costs.
Year-to-date figures up to April show that overall food prices are only two per cent higher than the same period in 2025, a trend the World Bank described as relatively stable compared to previous global disruptions.
Drawing comparisons with the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the bank observed that food prices rose by 15 per cent within a similar two-month timeframe, making the current increase significantly lower.
The analysis suggested that the latest shock to food prices is being driven more by rising production and transport costs than by major disruptions to food export routes.
Soybean oil emerged as one of the most affected commodities, rising by 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year, fuelled by stronger renewable diesel demand and new biofuel targets in the United States.
Similarly, palm oil and soybean prices remained elevated, supported by increased biodiesel demand and renewed purchases from China.
Despite the upward trend, the World Bank maintained that available edible oil supplies had prevented steeper price increases.
“Ample edible oil supplies helped limit further gains,” the bank said.
The report further highlighted growing food security concerns in import-dependent regions, especially in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where food inflation intensified after the Hormuz disruption.
It noted that Gulf countries, which previously maintained relatively stable food prices, experienced a sharp increase in inflation following supply chain interruptions.
Iran was identified as one of the most vulnerable countries, with food inflation already standing at 98 per cent as of February 2026.
Beyond the Middle East, food inflation also accelerated across Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as South Asia, echoing patterns witnessed during the early phase of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected moderate increases in food commodity prices for the rest of 2026, forecasting a two per cent rise in grains, four per cent growth in oils and meals, and an overall 2.5 per cent increase in global food prices.
However, it warned that the outlook remains uncertain.
“Risks remain tilted firmly to the upside,” the bank cautioned, particularly if supply disruptions continue beyond mid-year or global energy prices remain high.
Meanwhile, the United Nations World Food Programme estimates that continued supply chain disruptions could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in 2026, with more than half expected to come from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region.
