Jamaica is bracing for a potential catastrophe as Hurricane Melissa intensified into a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph on Saturday evening, according to the US National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters warned that the slow-moving system could strengthen into a rare Category 5 hurricane by Monday afternoon, posing an extreme threat to the island and neighboring countries.
As of Saturday, Melissa’s center was located about 125 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, creeping along at just 3 mph.
“Needless to say, there is a very serious situation in terms of catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica,” the NHC cautioned, urging residents under Hurricane Warning to complete their preparations immediately.
Torrential downpours are already battering parts of Haiti and will spread into Jamaica later Saturday, continuing for several days with life-threatening consequences.
“I urge Jamaicans to take this weather threat seriously,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. “Take all measures to protect yourself.”
Jamaica appears set to endure the worst of Melissa’s triple assault of flooding rain, destructive winds, and storm surge, with a potential landfall expected late Monday or early Tuesday.
Southern Haiti also faces severe flooding and landslide risks. A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica, while southern Haiti is under a hurricane watch.
Melissa’s sluggish pace has already proven deadly. Torrential rains have soaked Haiti and the Dominican Republic for days, triggering landslides and flash floods.
At least three deaths have been confirmed in Haiti, including two from a landslide, while one person has died and more than 1,000 have been displaced in the Dominican Republic.
The NHC expects Melissa to rapidly intensify into a Category 4 or stronger hurricane by Sunday afternoon. Landfall as a Category 5 cannot be ruled out, a scenario that would make Melissa the strongest hurricane ever to strike Jamaica.
Experts attribute such explosive storm intensification to global warming, noting that three of the four Atlantic hurricanes this season, Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto, also underwent rapid strengthening fueled by record ocean heat.
Forecasters warn that Jamaica, Haiti, and the southern Dominican Republic will face the brunt of Melissa’s wrath through early next week, followed by eastern Cuba, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Up to 30 inches of rain, and locally as much as 40 inches, could fall across parts of southwest Haiti and Jamaica by Tuesday, with eastern Cuba potentially seeing 18 inches.
“This is a life-threatening situation,” the NHC said, warning of “extensive damage to roads and buildings” and the likelihood of isolated communities. Hurricane-force winds are expected in Jamaica by Sunday or Monday, bringing widespread power outages, uprooted trees, and structural damage.
The government has moved into full emergency mode. All public hospitals have suspended elective procedures to free up beds, while Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston will close after its last flight on Saturday evening.
Evan Thompson, head of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service, said the storm’s slow speed poses a major challenge, “It’s going to sit there, pouring water while it’s barely moving. As long as what is predicted takes place, no part of Jamaica will escape its impact.”
On social media, Prime Minister Holness warned of storm surges up to 11 feet in low-lying areas and urged residents to secure their homes, trim overhanging branches, and prepare to evacuate if necessary.
Locals, remembering July’s Hurricane Beryl, expressed concern about Melissa’s drawn-out approach.
“Slow movement still cause a lot of damage,” fisherman Clive Davis told Reuters. “Beryl come with speed and gone fast, but this one , she wants to come stay, visit Jamaica for three days.”
Workers in Kingston spent Saturday clearing trash and silt from the Sandy Gully, a 20-kilometer drainage channel that could overflow during Melissa’s expected deluge, threatening to cut the city in two.
While the United States mainland is not expected to face direct impacts, forecasters warned that rough surf and rip currents could affect the East Coast next week.
Melissa’s forecast is alarming not only for its strength but for its nearly stationary movement, a dangerous combination that can dump staggering amounts of rain. The storm’s interaction with the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic will further amplify rainfall, increasing the risk of deadly mudslides.
With the Caribbean’s unusually deep pool of warm water fueling its rapid growth, Melissa could soon enter the record books and Jamaica, sadly, may be at the very center of its fury.
