Winter officially begins on 1 December in the United Kingdom, but Thursday has defied the usual chill with unusually mild conditions.
However, this temporary warmth comes with unsettled weather, as the Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings for strong winds extending into Friday.
The weekend is expected to remain changeable, with heavy rain and gusty winds across England and Wales. Temperatures are also likely to drop again, bringing the risk of snow and so-called “frost days.”
A Met Office map shows a yellow warning area across northern and western Scotland, valid from 16:00 GMT Thursday to 11:00 GMT Friday.
Temperatures on Thursday morning were up to 17C higher than Wednesday, and throughout the day, readings are expected to be 5 to 6C above the late-November average.
The milder air, which has traveled all the way from the Azores, is being driven by a deep low-pressure system situated north of the UK. This is producing strong winds, particularly across northern and western Scotland.
A Met Office yellow warning for wind in the region is in effect from 16:00 GMT Thursday to 11:00 GMT Friday. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph are likely, with more exposed areas possibly reaching up to 80 mph.
This may cause some disruption, especially to ferry services around the Northern and Western Isles. Tree branches could fall, and some communities may experience power cuts.
The strong winds are expected to ease later on Friday morning.
Looking ahead to the weekend, a developing weather system is set to move across England and Wales on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and the potential for strengthening winds.
While there is still some uncertainty about its exact path and intensity, heavy rainfall is likely to persist, particularly in eastern England.
A strong north to northeasterly wind is expected to develop from Saturday into Sunday, especially across eastern England, with gusts of up to 50-60 mph. Elsewhere, the wind will not be as strong, but the northerly airflow will usher in colder conditions.
Maximum temperatures on Sunday will range between 3-9C, while in Scotland, some areas may experience a “frost day” with temperatures remaining below freezing. Wintry showers are also expected in the north and east of Scotland, with further, more temporary snow likely on Monday in the Highlands as rain spreads across the UK under prevailing milder southwesterly winds.
Recent wet autumn weather is helping to ease drought concerns. Following the UK’s hottest summer on record and one of the driest springs, many regions faced droughts and hosepipe bans.
The National Drought Group, which met at the end of October, reported that England would need at least 100% of average rainfall up to the end of March to largely recover.
“The good news is that recent months have been pretty wet,” said Helen Wakeham, chair of the National Drought Group. Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre shows that, up to 25 November, most of the UK has received near or above-average rainfall this autumn.
On Thursday, Yorkshire Water stated that the current hosepipe ban is expected to end “within the next few weeks” and earlier than initially predicted, thanks to substantial rainfall.
In September, the north-east England area, which includes Yorkshire, recorded 152% of its normal rainfall, with 90% falling in October. Up to 25 November, 145% of normal rain had already fallen.
A spokesperson from Yorkshire Water added that reservoir levels are improving, now at 84.6% full, up from 80.5% last week. Meanwhile, Hull aquifer levels have increased to 49.4% from 46.6%.
Helen Wakeham emphasized, “Recent rain is very welcome, but it needs to be sustained over the next six months…to fill up our rivers, reservoirs and groundwater levels.”
