The CIA is reportedly preparing to arm Kurdish forces in an effort to spark a popular uprising in Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the plan who spoke to CNN.
Officials say the Trump administration has been actively engaging with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq, discussing ways to provide military support.
Iranian Kurdish armed groups maintain thousands of fighters along the Iraq-Iran border, mainly in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Since the outbreak of the conflict, several of these groups have released public statements hinting at imminent action and encouraging defections from Iranian military ranks.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has targeted Kurdish forces, claiming on Tuesday to have struck them with dozens of drones.
On the same day, President Donald Trump spoke with Mustafa Hijri, president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, a senior Kurdish official confirmed. KDPI has previously been targeted by the IRGC.
The senior Kurdish official told CNN that Iranian Kurdish opposition forces plan to participate in a ground operation in western Iran “in the coming days.”
“We believe we have a big chance now,” the source said, explaining the timing of the operation. “The militias expect US and Israeli support.”
Sources added that Trump also contacted Iraqi Kurdish leaders on Sunday to discuss potential US military operations in Iran and coordination with Kurdish forces, as first reported by Axios.
Any plan to arm Iranian Kurdish groups would require Iraqi Kurdish support, allowing weapons to pass through Iraqi Kurdistan and serve as a launch point.
“One idea would be for Kurdish armed forces to take on the Iranian security forces and pin them down to make it easier for unarmed Iranians in the major cities to turn out without getting massacred again as they were during unrest in January,” a source familiar with discussions said.
Another US official suggested the Kurds could help “sow chaos in the region and stretch the Iranian regime’s military resources thin.”
Some discussions also considered whether Kurdish forces could seize and hold northern Iranian territory, potentially creating a buffer zone for Israel.
The CIA declined to comment.
“Clearly trying to jump-start” an uprising
Alex Plitsas, a CNN national security analyst and former senior Pentagon official under President Barack Obama, said the US is “clearly trying to jump-start” a movement aimed at toppling the Iranian regime by arming its Kurdish allies.
“The Iranian people are generally unarmed as a whole and unless the security services collapse, it’ll be difficult for them to take over unless someone arms them,” Plitsas told CNN. “I believe the US is hopeful that this will inspire others on the ground in Iran to do the same.”
Jen Gavito, a former senior State Department official specializing in the Middle East under President Joe Biden, voiced concern about the potential fallout from arming the Kurds.
“We are already facing a volatile security situation, on both sides of the border,” Gavito said. “This has the potential to undermine Iraqi sovereignty and essentially empower armed militias with no accountability and with little understanding of what it may set in motion.”
In recent days, Israeli forces have struck Iranian military and police posts along the Iraq border, sources said, partly preparing for a possible influx of armed Kurdish fighters into northwest Iran.
An Israeli source indicated these strikes may intensify soon.
Despite interest from the US and Israel, any support for Kurdish forces aiming to challenge the Iranian regime would have to be extensive.
Current US intelligence assessments suggest Iranian Kurdish groups lack the resources and influence to trigger a successful uprising, one source noted. The Kurdish parties are also seeking political assurances from the Trump administration before committing to any resistance operations.
Internal divisions among Kurdish groups, differing ideologies, and competing agendas raise further questions about their reliability.
Some Trump officials have expressed concerns about whether Kurdish interests align with US objectives.
“It may not be as simple as Americans convincing a proxy force to fight on its behalf,” a Trump administration official said. “You have a group of people who are thinking about their own interests, and the question is whether getting them involved aligns with their interests.”
A history of US-Kurdish cooperation
The Kurds, an ethnic minority of 25-30 million spanning Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Armenia, have no official state. They are mostly Sunni Muslims but have diverse cultural, religious, and political traditions.
Trump administration officials have warned of Kurdish disillusionment from past partnerships with the US. “There is a concern that if an uprising is unsuccessful and the US withdraws, it will add to the narrative of abandoning the Kurds,” Plitsas said.
Former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis resigned partly due to Trump’s decision to pull US forces from Syria, citing it as an unacceptable abandonment of Kurdish allies.
The CIA has maintained a long-term presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, including an outpost near the Iranian border.
The US also has a consulate in Erbil and stationing troops there as part of the anti-ISIS campaign.
Historically, Kurdish cooperation with the US has included hopes for Iraqi Kurdistan independence and campaigns against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
However, earlier this year, a new US-aligned Syrian government launched a campaign to regain control of northern Syria, pushing Kurdish forces out and effectively ending their role guarding ISIS detainees. In January, US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack noted that the alliance with the Syrian Democratic Forces had “largely expired.”
