Brazilian President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in most opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s first-round presidential election, although the race is expected to proceed to a runoff.
The latest surveys released on Saturday showed the left-wing incumbent holding a narrow advantage over his right-wing challenger, with the two candidates separated by only a few percentage points in most polls.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a candidate must secure more than 50 per cent of valid votes to win outright.
If no candidate reaches that threshold, the two leading contenders will face each other in a second-round vote scheduled for October 25.
The CNT/MDA poll put Lula at 47.8 per cent and Bolsonaro at 42.1 per cent in the first round.
Augusto Cury scored 3.6 per cent, while Ronaldo Caiado had 3.4 per cent, Renan Santos 1.7 per cent and Romeu Zema 0.9 per cent.
In a projected runoff, Lula led Bolsonaro 47.3 per cent to 43.1 per cent, according to the survey of 2,007 people conducted between September 30 and October 2, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
Datafolha also showed Lula ahead in the first round, giving him 45 per cent against Bolsonaro’s 42 per cent.
In its runoff scenario, Lula had 47 per cent compared with Bolsonaro’s 46 per cent.
The poll surveyed 4,006 people on October 2 and 3, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
However, the Quaest poll showed a tighter contest, with Lula on 46 per cent and Bolsonaro on 45 per cent in the first round.
The survey projected Bolsonaro ahead in a runoff, with 44 per cent against Lula’s 42 per cent.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll similarly put Lula ahead in the first round with 47 per cent against Bolsonaro’s 44.1 per cent, while its runoff projection showed Lula narrowly leading 47.6 per cent to 47.4 per cent.
With the polls pointing to a close contest, the outcome of Sunday’s vote could determine whether Brazil’s presidential race is settled immediately or heads to a second-round showdown between Lula and Bolsonaro.
