The National Health Service is grappling with one of the most severe flu outbreaks witnessed in decades, prompting warnings from health leaders that hospitals across England could be pushed beyond capacity before Christmas if current trends continue.
Flu cases have risen sharply, increasing by 55% in just one week, with an average of 2,660 flu patients admitted to hospital each day last week, according to new National Health Service figures.
This marks a significant jump from 1,717 daily cases the previous week, forming what experts describe as a “tidal wave” of winter illness sweeping the country.
In the East Midlands, 142 people were hospitalised with the flu during the first week of December across seven NHS trusts.
By comparison, the same period last year saw 1,861 flu admissions, while only 402 cases were recorded in 2023. Weekly flu numbers peaked at 5,408 patients last winter and hit 5,441 cases during the 2022/23 season, the highest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The situation is further complicated by a potential nationwide doctors’ strike scheduled to begin on Wednesday, December 17, and continue until December 22. Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, has put forward a revised, last-minute offer to the British Medical Association in hopes of resolving the dispute and “end resident doctors strikes once and for all”.
Health officials warn that the latest figures cover a period before an even steeper rise in cases, with no indication yet that flu infections have reached their peak.
Parents are being strongly encouraged to ensure their children receive flu vaccinations ahead of the festive period, particularly to protect elderly and vulnerable relatives.
The current strain, dubbed “superflu”, is believed to be a mutated form of the influenza A (HSN2) strain known as “subclade K.”
Prof Meghana Pandit, the NHS national medical director, highlighted the immense pressure facing the service, stating, “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year, with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.”
She added, “The number of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year. Even worse, it continues to rise, and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.
“NHS staff have pulled out all the stops to vaccinate more people than last year, and with just a week left to ensure maximum immunity from flu for Christmas Day, I would urge anyone eligible for the vaccine to please book an appointment or visit a walk-in site as soon as possible.
“Vaccination is the best protection against getting potentially very ill, and it also helps protect those around you.
“We have prepared earlier for winter than ever before, and stress-tested services to ensure people have a range of ways to get the help they need and avoid needing to go to A&E.”
Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, echoed concerns about the speed and ease with which the current strain is spreading.
Speaking to Times Radio, he said, “So children are still at school, it’s warm and wet, so it’s perfect flu-spreading conditions.”
He urged the public to return to basic infection-control habits, “When you were talking about anything like Covid, I think we need to get back into the habit that if you are coughing and sneezing, but you’re not unwell enough to not go to work, then you must wear a mask when you’re in public spaces, including on public transport to stop the chances of you giving your virus to somebody else.
“And we were all very good about infection control during Covid. And we really, really need to get back to that now.”
