The Federal Government has commenced preparations for a new National Baseline Survey on illicit Small Arms and Light Weapons, about 10 years after the country conducted its first assessment in 2016.
The plan was disclosed in Abuja at a workshop organised by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons to review lessons from the 2016 survey.
The National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, represented by the Director of External Affairs at the Office of the National Security Adviser, Solomon Fehintola, said updated data was critical to tackling the proliferation of illicit weapons and addressing insecurity across the country.
Ribadu said illicit arms had continued to contribute to banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, urban criminality and terrorism in different parts of Nigeria.
He stressed that government policies on arms control must be based on reliable evidence rather than assumptions.
“Government’s response to this threat cannot be based on guesswork. It must be built on evidence,” Ribadu said.
According to him, a credible national baseline survey would help the government understand the movement of illicit weapons, improve counter-proliferation strategies and strengthen disarmament efforts.
He also called for the participation of security agencies, state and local governments, traditional and religious institutions, civil society organisations and affected communities in the exercise.
Also speaking, the Director and Deputy High Representative of the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, Adedeji Ebo, said the data from the 2016 survey could no longer adequately reflect Nigeria’s current security situation.
“You cannot conduct a solid national threat analysis in 2026 based solely on data from 2016,” Ebo said.
He said the security landscape had changed considerably over the past decade, with new forms of criminality and evolving trafficking routes making updated information necessary.
Ebo urged the government to ensure that the new survey captured information beyond official records, noting that communities affected by violence often possessed valuable information about the circulation of illicit weapons.
He said traditional and religious leaders, women’s groups, youth associations, farmers, fishers, artisanal producers and survivors of armed violence should be included in the process.
“The picture will be incomplete if it is drawn solely from official records,” he said.
The Director-General of the NCCSALW, retired DIG Johnson Kokumo, said Nigeria’s security environment had undergone significant changes since the first baseline survey.
Kokumo noted that patterns of armed violence had shifted, new criminal activities had emerged and trafficking networks had adapted to changing circumstances.
“Nigeria’s security environment has evolved considerably. The nature and patterns of armed violence have changed. New forms of criminality have emerged, trafficking routes and methods have adapted,” he said.
He added that the 2016 survey had played an important role in shaping Nigeria’s small arms control policies, including the establishment of the NCCSALW and the development of a National Action Plan on small arms control.
The officials stressed that the new exercise would provide the government with updated evidence needed to better understand the scale, sources and movement of illicit weapons and strengthen national efforts to curb their proliferation.
