Global crude oil prices are projected to climb above $90 per barrel following the United States’ targeted military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
The attack, which President Trump hailed as a “spectacular military success,” has dramatically escalated tensions in the Middle East, home to nearly half of the world’s oil supply.
According to Vanguard, energy experts warn the conflict could trigger significant market disruptions, with Iran being a founding OPEC member and major oil exporter. Crude prices had already risen to $79 per barrel from $68 in recent weeks due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and analysts predict further increases.
The Chairman of International Energy Services Limited, Dr. Diran Fawibe, explained the market dynamics: “Fundamentally, it is axiomatic that any disruption or restriction in the flow of oil in the arteries of the international market will invariably lead to a spike in crude oil prices. Crude oil buyers, whether traders or refiners, invariably start with speculation about their ability to meet demand requirements, which could become real, thereby falling into the realm of actual shortages.”
Fawibe highlighted two critical risks: “Two things could happen with Iran — oil production disruption and/or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping waterway for oil vessel movements to Western consuming countries. Unless the crisis is contained very soon, an increase in crude oil prices is almost a certainty.”
A petroleum economics expert, Professor Wumi Iledare, offered a tempered outlook: “The U.S. strike on Iranian facilities might inject a short-term geopolitical risk premium into global oil prices. However, unless there is a tangible disruption to physical supply — particularly through the Strait of Hormuz — sustained price escalation remains uncertain.”
For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, the price surge presents both opportunities and risks. Dr. Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise noted: “The surge in crude oil prices would impact foreign exchange earnings, oil being the biggest forex earner for the country. This would even be more impactful if output performance improves.”
Yusuf explained the potential economic benefits: “The oil sector currently accounts for about 50% of government revenue. An improvement in crude oil prices would therefore have a significant impact on government revenue. An improvement in revenue would positively impact fiscal consolidation and hopefully moderate the growth of the fiscal deficit.”
However, experts caution that without structural reforms, Nigeria may not fully capitalize on the windfall. Iledare warned: “For Nigeria, while higher crude prices could momentarily boost export revenues, they also risk fuelling domestic inflation and encouraging fiscal complacency.”
