Europe is facing growing concern over a possible jet fuel squeeze, with the head of the International Energy Agency warning that the continent may have “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” if supply disruptions persist.
According to a report by the organisation, stocks could reach a tipping point by June if Europe fails to replace at least half of its imports from the Middle East.
The IEA said the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for jet fuel exports from the Gulf, has been effectively closed for more than six weeks following Iran’s response to US and Israeli attacks, triggering a surge in prices and raising fears of shortages.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol told AP there could soon be flight cancellations if supplies remained blocked.
In its monthly oil market report, the agency—which advises 32 member countries on energy security, said Gulf exports remain the largest source of global jet fuel supply. It added that refineries in key exporting countries such as Korea, India and China also rely heavily on crude oil imports from the Middle East.
As a result, the disruption “has thrown a proverbial wrench into the inner workings of the aviation fuel markets”, it said.
A UK government spokesperson told the BBC that authorities were working with suppliers and airlines to “ensure people keep moving and businesses are supported”.
“UK airlines are clear that they are currently not seeing disruption to supply,” the spokesperson added.
Airlines UK, which represents the industry, said it was not yet experiencing disruption but was engaging with government on “crucial measures” needed to protect the aviation sector in the event of fuel shortages, including “reducing regulatory burdens, to protect consumers, trade, and the UK’s competitiveness”.
The IEA noted that Europe has traditionally depended on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports.
At present, European countries are attempting to replace Gulf supplies with imports from other regions, including the United States and Nigeria. Analysts say US exports have risen sharply in recent weeks.
However, the IEA warned that even if all those shipments were redirected to Europe, they would still only cover just over half of the lost supply.
It said that in scenarios where Europe cannot replace more than 50% of Middle Eastern imports, “physical shortages may emerge at select airports, resulting in flight cancellations, and demand destruction”.
Even if three-quarters of lost supply is replaced, similar disruptions could still occur, though likely not until August.
“Consequently, for now, it would appear that European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months,” the report added.
Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, said that even if Gulf supplies resumed soon, shortages could still emerge ahead of the peak summer travel season.
“It’s not a certainty, but still, it’s looking more and more likely that there will be a shortage of some extent in some areas of Europe.
“Of course, somewhere like Heathrow is probably going to be prioritized over other smaller airports, or smaller demand hubs. But yes, even if that supply does come on, it will take five to six weeks,” he said.
Across the aviation sector, airlines have already begun adopting emergency measures to cope with rising fuel costs, which typically account for 20–40% of operating expenses.
Benchmark European jet fuel prices surged to a record $1,838 (£1,387) per tonne in early April, compared with $831 before the conflict began.
The European Commission, however, said there was “no evidence of fuel shortages” within the EU, while acknowledging possible supply challenges “in the near future”.
A spokesperson said crude supplies to EU refineries remained “stable with no need for additional stock releases at present”.
The Commission added that oil and gas coordination groups were meeting weekly and further energy measures would be announced by the Commission president next week.
Last week, the Airports Council International warned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the coming weeks.
Airlines for Europe has also urged the EU to clarify passenger compensation rules, arguing that disruptions caused by fuel shortages or airspace closures linked to the conflict should be classified as “extraordinary circumstances”. This would exempt airlines from paying significant compensation for cancellations.
EasyJet reported £25m in additional fuel costs in March due to the Middle East crisis, despite hedging most of its fuel needs in advance.
The airline warned of “near-term uncertainty around fuel costs and customer demand”.
Meanwhile, KLM said it will cancel 160 flights across Europe in the coming month due to rising fuel costs, though this represents less than 1% of its European services.
The airline added that it is not currently experiencing a jet fuel shortage.
