Leaders of the BRICS bloc will gather in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, starting Sunday, where they are expected to collectively denounce the United States’ increasingly aggressive trade stance under former President Donald Trump.
However, the group appears divided when it comes to addressing the ongoing crises in the Middle East.
Representing roughly half of the world’s population and 40 percent of global GDP, the BRICS nations are poised to push back against what they regard as protectionist US trade measures, sources close to the summit discussions revealed.
Since taking office in January, Trump’s administration has issued a series of tariff threats targeting both allies and adversaries.
The latest round, expected to be formally communicated to trade partners starting Friday, will detail new tariffs due to take effect on July 9.
In response, diplomats from 11 emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, have been working to finalize a joint communiqué that highlights growing concerns over economic instability.
Although the final summit declaration is unlikely to mention the US or Trump directly, it will deliver an unmistakable rebuke aimed at Washington.
“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration,” said Marta Fernandez, who heads the BRICS Policy Center at Rio’s Pontifical Catholic University.
This measured approach is particularly important for China, which has only recently reached a deal with Washington to ease mutual tariffs.
“This doesn’t seem to be the right time to provoke further friction” between the world’s two leading economies, Fernandez added.
Xi’s Absence Dims Summit Impact
Originally established two decades ago as a platform for rapidly developing economies, BRICS has increasingly come to reflect China’s growing global influence.
Yet, the political significance of this year’s gathering is expected to be weakened by the notable absence of President Xi Jinping, marking the first time in his 12-year presidency that he has skipped the summit.
“I expect there will be speculation about the reasons for Xi’s absence,” said Ryan Hass, former China director at the US National Security Council and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“The simplest explanation may hold the most explanatory power. Xi recently hosted Lula in Beijing,” Hass explained.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, under indictment for war crimes, will also be absent from the summit but is slated to attend virtually, according to the Kremlin.
Hass suggested that Modi’s prominent role in the summit, India’s Prime Minister will be the guest of honor and is expected to attend a state lunch, might have influenced Xi’s decision to stay away.
“Xi does not want to appear upstaged by Modi,” Hass said.
“I expect Xi’s decision to delegate attendance to Premier Li (Qiang) rests amidst these factors.”
Xi’s non-attendance is seen as a disappointment for host President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is working to elevate Brazil’s international profile.
Within the span of a year, Lula’s administration will have hosted the G20, BRICS, and the COP30 climate summit, all before heading into a contentious presidential election campaign where Lula is expected to seek re-election.
Disunity Over Middle East Conflicts
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country is still recovering from a 12-day war with Israel, will also not attend the meeting.
A source close to the summit negotiations said BRICS members remain split on how to handle the dual crises in Gaza and the Iran-Israel conflict.
Iran’s representatives have been lobbying for a stronger collective statement—one that moves beyond vague references to peaceful dispute resolution and calls for a Palestinian state.
Aside from geopolitical tensions, the summit will also explore cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and global health.
Since its founding by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the BRICS bloc has grown to include South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.
Analysts argue this broader membership enhances BRICS’ global influence—but also introduces fresh complexities and divisions.
Brazilian officials remain hopeful that the summit can yield unified positions even on difficult matters.
“BRICS (countries), throughout their history, have managed to speak with one voice on major international issues, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case this time on the subject of the Middle East,” Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told AFP.