A new report by research experts from Nextier SPD has revealed a troubling resurgence of Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, resulting in the deaths of over 100 military personnel and more than 200 civilians within a span of just five weeks.
The findings are part of a detailed analysis published in the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly titled “Re-thinking Nigeria’s Counterinsurgency Strategy: The Aftermath of the Boko Haram Resurgence.”
Authored by the Managing Partner at Nextier and an Honorary Fellow at the University of Birmingham, Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, and Associate Consultant at Nextier and Senior Research Fellow at IFRA-Nigeria, Dr. Chibuike Njoku, the report examines the failures of current military-centered approaches to counterinsurgency.
According to the authors, between November 2024 and April 2025, Nigeria witnessed over 252 terrorist attacks, with January 2025 marked as the deadliest month.
They noted: “Between November 2024 and April 2025, no fewer than 252 attacks were recorded, resulting in the deaths of over 100 military personnel and more than 200 civilians, highlighting not only the human toll but also the deteriorating security environment.”
The report identifies a significant uptick in Boko Haram operations in Nigeria’s Northeast and border communities.
The insurgents, comprising factions of Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad and Islamic State West Africa Province , have intensified their use of IEDs, ambushed military forces, and launched attacks on IDP camps and agrarian communities.
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“Despite ongoing military operations and regional cooperation, JAS and ISWAP continue to pose a grave threat to national and regional stability in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region. The recent resurgence of attacks in hard-hit areas like Borno, Yobe, and parts of Adamawa underscores the limited success of current approaches that have prioritised mainly kinetic military actions over holistic, community-driven solutions,” the report stated.
It also highlighted increasing distress within the Nigerian military and growing distrust between civilians and security forces.
“Reports from humanitarian organisations and conflict monitors have flagged growing fatigue within the military ranks, deteriorating civil-military relations, and increasingly sophisticated insurgent tactics,” the authors noted.
In addition, the study draws attention to a rise in targeted attacks on civilians, kidnappings, and ambushes, including those aimed at schoolchildren and humanitarian workers.
“The re-emergence of targeted attacks on soft targets, ambushes on military convoys, and the abduction of civilians, including aid workers and schoolchildren signals a dangerous escalation that current policy frameworks have failed to preempt.”
The Nextier report provides a month-by-month breakdown of attack incidents and their severity, with January 2025 alone accounting for 92 deaths despite relatively few incidents, suggesting heightened lethality.
“The number of recorded incidents fluctuated modestly, peaking in January 2025 (eight incidents) and March 2025 (seven incidents). However, the disparity between incident frequency and severity, especially concerning casualties, is striking,” the report observed.
“January 2025 alone recorded 92 deaths despite a relatively average number of incidents. This suggests an escalation in the lethality of attacks, raising questions about the effectiveness of deterrence and intelligence operations,” it said.
Further analysis pointed to increased cases of kidnapping in early 2025, with April seeing the highest number at eight victims, signaling the insurgents’ shift in tactics.
“Moreover, kidnap victims, an increasingly visible metric of insecurity, were recorded in February, March, and April 2025, with the highest in April (eight victims). This trend points to a diversification of tactics by insurgents and criminal elements, reflecting operational adaptation and exploiting gaps in state response capabilities,” the report stressed.
The report also criticized the lack of integration of socioeconomic policies into the counterinsurgency strategy.
“A glaring policy gap is the failure to integrate socio-economic interventions meaningfully. Data patterns from the reporting period reveal that military victories do not necessarily translate to improved community security and stabilisation,” it pointed out.
It warned that persistent violence is often fueled by widespread poverty, unemployment, and lack of access to education, all of which foster radicalisation.
“The persistence of violence is compounded by poverty, youth unemployment, and poor access to education and services, which continue to create fertile ground for radicalisation.”
Compounding the challenge, the report noted coordination lapses among security agencies, alleged rights abuses, and local resistance to reintegrating repentant fighters—factors which have weakened trust and intelligence gathering.
“Additionally, the weak coordination among security agencies, reports of human rights abuses, and community resistance to the reintegration of former fighters have eroded trust and undercut intelligence gathering, key pillars of sustainable security. Given these trends, it is evident that the current strategy is reactive rather than preventative,” it maintained.
The report calls for a more people-centered, comprehensive framework that combines military operations with governance reforms, inclusive dialogue, and long-term socioeconomic revitalization to effectively curb the insurgency.
