The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising prices of food and other essential commodities could deepen poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria despite projected economic growth and improved macroeconomic stability.
The warning was contained in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, released on Tuesday.
The Fund noted that although Nigeria had benefited from economic reforms and favourable external trade conditions, many households continued to face financial pressure due to the high cost of basic necessities.
“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the report stated.
The IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025, with growth expected to reach 4.3 per cent in 2027.
The 2026 growth forecast represents an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the Fund’s April projection.
On inflation, the report projected that Nigeria’s average consumer price inflation would decline from 23.0 per cent in 2025 to 15.6 per cent in 2026 and 14.7 per cent in 2027.
Nigeria’s current account surplus was also projected to rise to seven per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026, compared with 4.8 per cent in 2025, before declining to 4.4 per cent in 2027.
Despite these positive indicators, the IMF cautioned that improved economic performance might not immediately translate into better living conditions for vulnerable Nigerians.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund projected economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2026, while warning that the regional outlook varied considerably among countries.
“Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain stable at 4.5 per cent in 2026, though this masks some substantial divergence across countries,” it stated.
The report identified volatile commodity prices, climate-related shocks, limited access to external financing and declining official development assistance as factors threatening economic progress across the region.
It also warned that geopolitical tensions, higher food and energy prices, and tighter global financing conditions could further weaken growth prospects in developing economies.
“Risks are skewed to the downside,” the IMF stated, pointing to a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy infrastructure as potential threats to global economic stability.
To reduce the impact on vulnerable households, the Fund urged governments to provide targeted assistance rather than introduce broad-based measures that could undermine public finances.
It recommended that governments “rely primarily on temporary, targeted income support for the most vulnerable,” while strengthening social protection systems to help households withstand future economic shocks.
The warning comes amid recent findings by the United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative that an additional 17.9 million Nigerians fell into multidimensional poverty between 2021 and 2024, according to the 2026 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index.
The findings highlighted the continuing challenge of translating economic improvements into meaningful reductions in poverty across the country.
