Microsoft co-founder, Bill Gates, has warned that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence could trigger one of the most disruptive periods in modern history, with many jobs potentially disappearing permanently if governments and businesses fail to prepare.
Gates raised the concerns in a more than 6,000-word essay, titled “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical,” published on his Gates Notes website on Wednesday.
According to him, AI could either become a powerful tool for reducing inequality or widen the gap between wealthy and poorer populations, depending largely on how governments, companies and societies respond to its expansion.
“In terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice.
“The challenge is monumental. Even under the best circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history,” he wrote.
Gates argued that preparations for the transformation were already inadequate, saying policymakers and communities had not fully confronted the scale or speed of the changes ahead.
“Unfortunately, right now we are not preparing for it. I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era,” he stated.
He noted that AI could spread much faster than earlier technological breakthroughs because it can operate on devices that people already use and interact with users through natural language.
“When the PC came along, it took 20 years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes.
“AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data,” he hinted.
Entry-level workers face growing risk
Gates identified job displacement as one of the major challenges of the AI revolution, warning that the impact could be permanent rather than simply linked to temporary economic downturns.
“Many jobs will disappear forever,” he wrote.
He said workers in entry-level and mid-level positions could be especially exposed because many of the new roles created by AI would demand skills that take years to develop.
“AI may not reach this level, but its impact will not go away with an economic cycle. The jobs at most risk are entry- and mid-level, and the new jobs being created will mostly require skills that take many years to learn.”
The disruption, he added, would not be limited to technology companies. Sales and customer service workers, software engineers and paralegals could be among those affected early, while AI could eventually perform tasks involving financial assessments, data analysis and aspects of healthcare.
“Jobs in sales and customer support (online and over the phone), software engineering, and paralegal work may be among the first affected, but the disruption will reach much further as AI takes on tasks that today still require trained workers: things like assessing loan applications, doing data analysis, and even triaging patients,” he declared.
Gates also predicted that advances in robotics would eventually expose some physical jobs to automation.
“I think ‘smart’ robots will begin to compete with people on some physical tasks—in the construction and hospitality industries, for example—by the end of the decade,” he said.
He warned that companies’ efforts to reduce costs could accelerate the adoption of AI and robotics, potentially leaving fewer quality jobs available while concentrating the economic gains among a relatively small group.
“Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group,” he wrote.
Gates said young people entering the labour market could face particularly difficult circumstances as companies reduce the number of traditional entry-level positions.
“I’m especially worried about young people, who will enter a workforce with fewer entry-level openings,” Gates said.
He argued that the most significant disruption could occur once AI systems become sufficiently accurate to work without constant human oversight.
“The biggest shift for workers will happen when AI provides nearly error-free work. At that point, it will be able to function on its own without a human checking in on it, and companies will have every economic incentive to let it,” the Microsoft founder asserted.
He said societies would consequently have to rethink long-standing assumptions about employment, wages and economic security.
“This will lead to a fundamental change in how we think about work, income, and economic security.
“How will an economy that’s been built around employment operate if fewer people are working, or if many people are working fewer hours?”
Cyberattacks and other AI threats
Beyond employment, Gates highlighted the potential for AI to increase the ability of individuals and organisations to cause harm.
He pointed to cyberattacks, fraud, disinformation, deepfakes, surveillance and bioterrorism as areas of concern, noting that the technology could lower the resources required to carry out attacks.
“The resources needed to make an attack are going down significantly and we haven’t been able to separate those abilities from benign usage,” he wrote.
He warned that essential services could become increasingly vulnerable as AI capabilities improve.
“Think about the infrastructure that will be vulnerable: hospitals, financial institutions, water systems, power grids, systems for managing government benefits. When these institutions are attacked, it’s the patients, customers, and benefits recipients who stand to lose,” he further noted.
Gates also raised the possibility that increasingly sophisticated AI systems could eventually behave in ways that conflict with the intentions of their creators.
“The technology is improving faster than anyone expected and in surprising ways, and as the models become more powerful, they could begin to act against our interests and we could lose control,” he wrote.
AI could also transform healthcare, agriculture
Despite his warnings, Gates said AI could deliver enormous benefits if properly managed, particularly in healthcare, agriculture, education, clean energy and public services.
“With its ability to synthesize knowledge from every scientific field, AI can accelerate innovation in the world’s toughest technical challenges: providing reliable clean energy for everyone, combating climate change, growing enough food, eradicating diseases, and more,” he said.
He highlighted the potential impact on farmers in poorer countries, many of whom lack access to reliable weather information, agricultural advice and disease-prevention support.
“In most low-income countries, farmers don’t get reliable weather forecasts or advice on what seeds to plant, how to protect their crops and livestock from disease, or how to improve their soil.
“Using AI, low-income farmers will soon be able to get better advice about all these things than even the richest farmers get today and increase their output substantially,” Gates wrote
He also said AI could expand access to education and healthcare while making government services more efficient and reducing bureaucratic obstacles.
“Taken together, the advances in all these areas could make everyday life easier, more affordable, and less constrained by a person’s income or connections,” he said.
However, Gates stressed that positive outcomes would depend on deliberate policy choices rather than technological progress alone.
“In all these areas, the operative word is ‘can’—AI can improve life for people at every income level. But it won’t do that automatically.”
He called for governments and philanthropic organisations to ensure that the benefits of AI reach poorer populations instead of becoming concentrated among those who are already wealthy.
Gates seeks global framework for AI
Gates said governments would need to establish new institutions and international mechanisms capable of responding to AI’s effects across the economy and society.
“The highest priority is a monumental task: creating a domestic and international framework for dealing with AI.
“None of our current institutions were designed to handle a technology that spreads so fast and touches so many parts of our lives. So we’ll need to make new ones,” he wrote.
He said AI would have implications for national security, employment, education, taxation, energy, elections, public health, financial systems, law enforcement and transportation.
Gates therefore advocated international cooperation, arguing that the cross-border nature of AI-related risks made a global response necessary.
“This is why an international organization will need to be built in parallel.
“We do not have the luxury of moving slowly,” he said.
He urged policymakers to involve technology companies alongside workers, educators, community leaders and other groups that would experience the effects of AI directly.
“This unprecedented technology demands an unprecedented global response.
“If we get it right, the payoff for humanity will be phenomenal and the world will be a more equitable place,” he wrote.
