The Opta supercomputer has predicted Spain to defeat defending champions Argentina in Sunday’s 2026 FIFA World Cup final, giving La Roja the edge ahead of the showpiece clash at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
The highly anticipated final will see reigning world champions Argentina attempt to retain the trophy they won in Qatar four years ago, while Spain seek to lift the FIFA World Cup for the first time since their historic triumph in South Africa in 2010.
Argentina booked their place in a second consecutive World Cup final after staging a dramatic comeback to beat England in the semi-finals.
The Three Lions had looked set for victory after Anthony Gordon’s opener in Atlanta, but Lionel Messi inspired another memorable turnaround.
With Argentina’s hopes hanging by a thread, the 39-year-old captain produced two decisive assists in the 85th and 92nd minutes to secure a remarkable victory and keep alive the Albiceleste’s dream of defending their title.
Spain, meanwhile, reached the final by upsetting France 2-0 in Dallas. Despite entering the contest as underdogs, Luis de la Fuente’s side delivered a composed display, with Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro scoring the goals that ended France’s hopes of reaching a third straight World Cup final.
The victory also marked Spain’s return to football’s biggest stage for the first time since they won their only World Cup title in 2010.
Since that triumph, La Roja had failed to progress beyond the round of 16 in subsequent tournaments, making this year’s run all the more significant.
Spain tipped to beat Argentina
Although many fans believe Messi could complete the perfect farewell by winning what is widely expected to be his final World Cup match, the Opta supercomputer has a different prediction.
“Messi, 39, is most likely playing in his last World Cup. What better way to go out than playing your last game in a World Cup final and winning it to defend your status as world champions?
“Well, the supercomputer has other ideas, because it has backed Spain to clinch their fifth major honour since 2008.”
According to Opta’s latest simulations, Spain have a 59 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, while Argentina’s chances stand at 41 per cent.
Both finalists head into Sunday’s encounter unbeaten throughout the tournament.
Argentina are now on a 13-match unbeaten run in World Cup fixtures, with their last defeat coming against Saudi Arabia in their opening match of the 2022 tournament.
However, Lionel Scaloni’s side have been forced to work much harder on their route to the final.
Argentina needed extra time to overcome Cabo Verde and Switzerland before producing dramatic late comebacks against Egypt and England in the knockout rounds.
Spain’s journey has been comparatively smoother. Aside from a couple of late match-winning goals from Mikel Merino, the European champions have largely controlled their matches and boast one of the tournament’s strongest defensive records, conceding only one goal compared to Argentina’s seven.
Sunday’s final therefore pits the tournament’s most resilient comeback specialists against its most dominant all-round team, with Opta’s supercomputer believing Spain are favourites to reclaim football’s biggest prize after a 16-year wait.
