The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has reported a slight decline in Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensates, in November 2025. The country’s output fell by 0.7 percent, dropping to 1.486 million barrels per day from 1.496 million bpd in October 2025.
OPEC noted that condensates, which Nigeria produces at around 196,028 bpd according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission,, are not included in these figures.
The details were revealed in OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, which stated that the November figures were based on data from secondary sources, suggesting that Nigeria fell short of its 1.5 million bpd quota.
When figures from direct sources were analyzed, OPEC reported that Nigeria produced 1.436 million bpd in November, up from 1.401 million bpd in October.
The current 1.486 million bpd reflects a modest increase from the 1.417 million bpd recorded in the same period last year.
Commenting on the figures in an interview with Vanguard, Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, said, “That Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) for November 2025 at 1.486 mbpd—just slightly below October’s 1.496 mbpd and still short of the 1.5 mbpd target is not too surprising.
“The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.
“The selective implementation of the PIA must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”
In a separate development, the NUPRC has set an ambitious goal to boost Nigeria’s oil production to over 2.5 million barrels per day in the coming years.
The Commission’s Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, highlighted progress since the NUPRC’s inception in 2021, noting that Nigeria’s active rig count has risen from 16 in 2021 to 40 under the Commission’s oversight.
